Public Equity Investing (bundled playbook)

This skill gives every AlphaCouncil analyst the same deep-research method without depending on Codex's curated remote @public-equity-investing plugin. It is a runnable method with gates, not a style guide. Evidence is gathered live via the agent's own web search (WebSearch + WebFetch).

Educational/research only. Not investment advice. Report missing data; never fabricate figures.

When to use

Whenever an AlphaCouncil evidence analyst runs. Each analyst applies the sourcing ladder and its role focus below, then returns the standard JSON evidence packet (see AlphaCouncil's Agent Output Contract). Keep JSON field names in English; write prose in the user's language.

Sourcing ladder (per claim, in order)

1. Primary document first. Prefer the issuer/regulator over aggregators:

• filings → SEC EDGAR full-text (sec.gov), 10-K/10-Q/8-K, 424B, Form 4; non-US → the local

regulator / exchange filing (HKEX, SEHK, EDINET, etc.).

• earnings → the 8-K Ex-99.1 press release and the IR deck / transcript on the company IR domain.
• price/quote → the exchange or a named quote page, with the exact as-of timestamp.

1. Dated, scoped search. Run a primary-locator query (restrict to sec.gov + the company IR/exchange

domain), then a recency query (<ticker> <topic> <year>), then ONE mandatory disconfirming query (<ticker> guidance cut / downgrade / accounting concern / short thesis).

1. WebFetch the actual page and quote exact numbers with their real dates (signal date, source

publication date, retrieval date are distinct).

1. Corroborate any market-moving number across at least two independent sources; if only one exists,

mark confidence medium and say so.

1. Anything paywalled / stale / unfetchable → `open_questions`. Do not invent it.

Role focus

• market_data — price action, liquidity/volume, range vs 20/50/200-day, relative strength vs index/peers.
• earnings_deep_dive — last reported quarter: revenue/margins/segments, surprises vs consensus, guidance.
• forward_expectations — consensus estimates, implied beat/miss thresholds, what's priced in.
• sell_side_revisions — rating and target-price changes (who, when, from→to), dispersion of targets.
• earnings_call_transcript — management tone, commitments, hedges, repeated themes, Q&A pressure points.
• quant_factor — momentum, trend, volatility, volume/liquidity, relative strength, short interest,

borrow, options IV/skew/expected move when available.

• valuation_long_short — see Valuation frameworks below; produce a long thesis AND a short thesis.
• news_industry_management — recent catalysts, industry context, regulatory/competitive backdrop.
• management_industry_voices — publicly verifiable commentary only; separate direct quote vs paraphrase

vs media interpretation; never imply non-public information.

• insider_sec — Form 4 insider transactions, buybacks, dilution, debt, capital allocation.

ETF, fund and broad-index routing

Classify the instrument before applying the company role list above.

• ETF/fund: establish tracked index/methodology, dated holdings and weights, top-ten and

sector concentration, fee, AUM, liquidity/spread, premium-discount or tracking difference, flows, lending/derivatives, rebalances and tax structure. Fundamentals are holdings-level look-through with the covered weight stated.

• Cash index: establish calculation methodology, dated constituents/weights, concentration,

sector/factor exposures, breadth, reconstitution/rebalances, aggregate earnings and valuation methodology, macro sensitivity and any explicitly named derivative proxy.

• Aggregation discipline: use one date and disclose the provider/method and coverage

weight. Never add a few constituents into ETF/index revenue, EPS, cash flow or guidance.

• Filings discipline: a constituent Form 4 is issuer activity, not fund insider trading.

Operating-company Company Facts and issuer financial screens are not_applicable for the fund/index itself, not failed evidence.

Valuation frameworks (valuation_long_short)

Use at least two, and state assumptions explicitly:

• Comparables — peer EV/EBITDA, P/E, P/S, EV/Sales with the peer set named and dated.
• DCF / reverse-DCF — what growth + margin the current price already implies; is it achievable?
• Scenario — bear / base / bull price targets with the trigger for each.
• Catalyst & invalidation — name the events that confirm or break the thesis.

Output a valuation_range plus the long thesis and short thesis; map every number to a source_id.

Gates (must pass before a packet is "done")

1. Primary-source gate — every material claim cites a real url with a published_at; no bare

aggregator paraphrase for a market-moving number.

1. Disconfirming gate — you ran at least one query designed to break the thesis.
2. Recency gate — figures carry real dates; stale data is flagged, not presented as current.
3. Honesty gate — missing/unavailable data is listed in open_questions; confidence reflects it.

Anti-rationalizations

• "I already know this stock" → markets move; re-fetch dated primaries anyway.
• "One source is enough" → corroborate market-moving numbers or mark medium.
• "Close enough" → quote the exact figure and date, or route to open_questions.