Investment Banking — Event Analysis (bundled playbook)

This skill lets AlphaCouncil analyze corporate transactions and banking events without depending on Codex's curated remote @investment-banking plugin. Runnable method with gates, evidence via WebSearch + WebFetch.

Educational/research only. Not investment advice, not a solicitation. Report missing data honestly.

When to use

For the ib_event_analysis role, or whenever the request involves a deal/transaction: M&A, equity issuance (ECM/secondary/ATM), debt issuance/refinancing, buyback/dividend, spin-off/divestiture, or a strategic transaction (e.g. major supply/partnership terms). Return the standard evidence packet; keep JSON field names in English, prose in the user's language.

Deal taxonomy → what to extract

• M&A — acquirer/target, consideration (cash/stock/mix), price + premium to unaffected, structure,

financing, expected synergies, accretion/dilution, conditions, regulatory/antitrust path, break fee, expected close.

• ECM — offering size, type (primary/secondary/ATM/convertible), price/discount, dilution %, use of

proceeds, lockups, underwriters.

• Debt — size, tenor, coupon/spread, secured/unsecured, use of proceeds (refi vs growth), covenant

and maturity-wall impact, rating action.

• Buyback / dividend — authorization size vs market cap, pace, funding source, signal vs dilution

offset, capital-allocation tradeoff.

• Spin-off / divestiture — perimeter, rationale, stranded costs, pro-forma leverage, tax treatment.
• Strategic transaction — counterparty, scope, exclusivity, financial terms where disclosed, the

earnings/strategic impact.

Sourcing ladder (per claim, in order)

1. Primary filing/release first: the 8-K and its exhibits, 424B / S-4 / proxy (DEFM14A), the deal

press release on the issuer IR domain, and the rating-agency release. Non-US → the local exchange/regulator filing.

1. Dated, scoped search (issuer IR + sec.gov + the named counterparty), then one disconfirming query

(<deal> regulatory block / antitrust / financing risk / terminated).

1. WebFetch the actual document; quote exact terms (price, premium, size, coupon, close date) with

dates.

1. Corroborate headline terms across the filing AND a second independent source; single-source → medium.
2. Paywalled/unconfirmed/rumored → open_questions; clearly label rumor vs confirmed.

Analysis to produce

• Terms table — the hard numbers (price, premium, size, %, dates) each mapped to a source_id.
• Impact — accretion/dilution, pro-forma leverage/coverage, EPS and capital-structure effect.
• Risk path — regulatory/antitrust, financing, shareholder-vote, MAC/closing conditions, timeline.
• Read-through — what the deal implies for the thesis (catalyst or invalidation), feeding the

bull/bear debate and the portfolio-manager verdict.

Gates (must pass before the packet is "done")

1. Primary-document gate — headline terms come from the filing/release, not a paraphrase; each has a

real url + published_at.

1. Confirmed-vs-rumor gate — anything not in a filing/official release is labeled rumor and

confidence-capped.

1. Quantify gate — premium, dilution %, leverage delta, and close date are stated as numbers or

explicitly listed as unavailable in open_questions.

1. Honesty gate — no invented terms; unknowns are surfaced, not guessed.

Anti-rationalizations

• "The press summarized it" → fetch the actual 8-K/424B and quote exact terms.
• "Premium is roughly X" → compute it from the disclosed price vs the unaffected price, with both dates.
• "It'll obviously clear regulators" → state the actual approval path and the real risk, or mark unknown.