Is fed-watch safe to install?

SaferSkills independently audited fed-watch (Agent Skill) and scored it 100/100 (green). The audit ran 55 deterministic rules across Security, Supply Chain, Maintenance, Transparency, and Community; it found 0 high-severity and 0 lower-severity findings. The full rule-by-rule trace and per-finding evidence are below. Free, methodology-open.

CategoryWeightCategory scoreContribution

Securityprompt, exec, net, exfil, eval

35%

100

35.0 pts

Supply chainhash, typosquat, maintainer, lockfile

20%

100

20.0 pts

Maintenancestaleness, pinning, CI

15%

100

15.0 pts

TransparencySKILL.md, perms, README

15%

100

15.0 pts

Communityinstalls, verify, response

15%

100

15.0 pts

Findings & checks · 0 flagged

Securityscore 100 · 0 findings

✓—All security checks passedNo findings in this category for the latest scan.pass

Supply chainscore 100 · 0 findings

✓—All supply chain checks passedNo findings in this category for the latest scan.pass

Maintenancescore 100 · 0 findings

✓—All maintenance checks passedNo findings in this category for the latest scan.pass

Transparencyscore 100 · 0 findings

✓—All transparency checks passedNo findings in this category for the latest scan.pass

Communityscore 100 · 0 findings

✓—All community checks passedNo findings in this category for the latest scan.pass

The primary manifest — the file an agent reads to learn what this artifact does.

skills/macro/fed-watch/SKILL.md · 1 file

skills/macro/fed-watch/SKILL.md5.1 KB · Markdown

name: fed-watch

description: Analyze Fed rate policy using 12-month inflation trends, employment data, yield curve signals, and market stress to forecast the next likely Fed move.

Fed Watch

Overview

Act as a rates strategist. Collect current and historical inflation data, employment indicators, yield curve levels, and market stress signals to assess the Fed's likely policy direction. Focus on what the data tells us about the next move.

Prerequisite: This skill requires FRED_API_KEY to be configured. Without it, only market indices and sentiment data are available.

Announce at start: "Running Fed Watch -- collecting rate history, inflation trends, employment data, and market stress indicators."

Data Collection

Wave 1 -- ALL calls in parallel

Tool	Parameters	Priority
`fred_indicator`	series_id=fed_funds	REQUIRED
`fred_indicator_history`	series_id=fed_funds, start_date=12 months ago, end_date=today	REQUIRED
`fred_indicator_history`	series_id=cpi, start_date=12 months ago, end_date=today, units=pc1	REQUIRED
`fred_indicator_history`	series_id=core_pce, start_date=12 months ago, end_date=today, units=pc1	REQUIRED
`fred_indicator`	series_id=unemployment	REQUIRED
`fred_indicator`	series_id=initial_claims	ENRICHMENT
`fred_indicator`	series_id=treasury_2y	REQUIRED
`fred_indicator`	series_id=treasury_10y	REQUIRED
`fred_indicator`	series_id=nonfarm_payrolls (NFP data may be 2-4 weeks old)	ENRICHMENT
`tradingview_market_indices`	(default)	REQUIRED
`fred_economic_calendar`	limit=10	ENRICHMENT

DO NOT proceed to analysis until ALL REQUIRED calls return. ENRICHMENT failures are acceptable.

Analysis

Cross-reference the collected data across four dimensions:

Inflation Trend -- Plot CPI and Core PCE over the 12-month history. Is inflation decelerating toward the 2% target, stalling, or re-accelerating? Identify the 3-month trend vs the 12-month trend.
Employment Strength -- Unemployment rate level and direction. Initial claims trend. Nonfarm payrolls momentum. A strong labor market gives the Fed room to stay restrictive.
Yield Curve Signal -- Compute 10Y minus 2Y spread. Compare 2Y yield to current Fed Funds rate. If 2Y < Fed Funds, the market is pricing cuts. If 2Y > Fed Funds, the market expects hikes or prolonged hold.
Market Stress -- Extract VIX from market indices. VIX above 30 signals acute stress that may force the Fed's hand regardless of inflation.

Determine whether the weight of evidence points to the Fed's next move being a hike, cut, or extended hold.

DO NOT reproduce raw tool output. Synthesize and interpret.

Output Format

Rate Snapshot

Metric	Value
Fed Funds Rate	x.xx%
Last Change	+/-xx bps on YYYY-MM-DD
2Y Treasury	x.xx%
10Y Treasury	x.xx%
2Y-10Y Spread	+/-xx bps
2Y vs Fed Funds	+/-xx bps (market pricing signal)

Inflation Trend (12-Month)

Month	CPI (YoY%)	Core PCE (YoY%)
(show 4-6 data points spanning the 12 months to illustrate the trajectory)

Trajectory assessment: Decelerating / Stalling / Re-accelerating
Distance from 2% target

Employment Picture

Unemployment rate and direction
Nonfarm payrolls trend (if available)
Initial claims trend (if available)
2-3 sentence assessment

Market Stress

VIX level and interpretation (low <15, moderate 15-25, elevated 25-30, acute >30)
Whether stress level constrains Fed options

Upcoming Fed-Relevant Data

List releases from the economic calendar that directly influence Fed decisions (CPI, PCE, NFP, GDP, FOMC).

Fed Outlook

Stance: HAWKISH / DOVISH / ON HOLD

Confidence: HIGH / MODERATE / LOW

Provide 3-5 sentences of reasoning. State what conditions would change the outlook. Note any divergence between what the data suggests and what the market is pricing.

Limitations

Data from TradingView and Yahoo Finance is 15-minute delayed. CBOE and sentiment data is end-of-day. Verify critical levels with real-time data before executing trades.

Common Mistakes

Treating CPI and Core PCE as interchangeable -- the Fed watches Core PCE as its preferred gauge
Ignoring the gap between 2Y yield and Fed Funds rate, which reveals market expectations
Stating a Fed outlook without explaining what data would change it
Presenting inflation history as a flat list instead of identifying the trend direction

fed-watch— agent skill

Is fed-watch safe to install?

Fed Watch

Overview

Data Collection

Wave 1 -- ALL calls in parallel

Analysis

Output Format

Rate Snapshot

Inflation Trend (12-Month)

Employment Picture

Market Stress

Upcoming Fed-Relevant Data

Fed Outlook

Limitations

Common Mistakes

Audit the pieces. Scan the whole. Decide.