BT Tournament

This skill runs an online Bradley-Terry tournament and exposes 95% confidence intervals so "low-confidence ties" stay visible.

When to invoke

• Researcher subagent has just emitted >= 3 hypothesis nodes in one turn.
• The user explicitly typed /bt-tournament.
• The cockpit shows two candidates whose 95% intervals overlap and the user asks which to push first.

Workflow

1. Gather the candidate hypothesis node ids and texts from mcp__memory__get_active_frontier.
2. For each pair you intend to compare, call mcp__memory__judge_hypotheses to fetch the canonical comparison prompt. Evaluate inline (do not spawn a sub-agent just to judge).
3. Decide a winner. Call mcp__memory__record_judgement(a, b, winner, reason). Internally this records the comparison and updates the BT leaderboard; you do not need to call update_bt_rating separately.
4. Pull the leaderboard via mcp__memory__get_bt_leaderboard(top_k=10). Look at strength, lcb, ucb, n_comparisons, and insufficient_samples.
5. Decide whether to run another comparison. Stop when:

• The top-2 LCB / UCB intervals no longer overlap (clear winner), OR
• At least 3 comparisons have been logged for every candidate, OR
• The user already approved a target.

1. Hand off the top-2 to the engineer. Quote each hypothesis's BT strength and the 95% interval. If insufficient_samples is true for any winner, say so explicitly.

Default judging criteria

• novelty
• feasibility
• falsifiability

Guardrails

• Only compare hypothesis nodes against hypothesis nodes (the MCP enforces this and will raise).
• Keep reasons short and concrete; they are stored with the comparison and re-surfaced in the cockpit.
• Do not call mcp__memory__suggest_pause_low_strength from inside this skill. That is a separate decision the user (or P3 hooks) takes.
• If the cockpit is running, the BT update emits a bt_rating_updated event so the TUI's leaderboard updates without a manual refresh.