norvigs-law — independently scanned and version-tracked by SaferSkills.
SaferSkills independently audited norvigs-law (Agent Skill) and scored it 100/100 (green). The audit ran 55 deterministic rules across Security, Supply Chain, Maintenance, Transparency, and Community; it found 0 high-severity and 0 lower-severity findings. The full rule-by-rule trace and per-finding evidence are below. Free, methodology-open.
Findings & checks · 0 flagged
Every scanned point with the score it earned and what moved between them.
First recorded scan — no prior version to compare against.
The primary manifest — the file an agent reads to learn what this artifact does.
"Any technology that surpasses 50% penetration will never double again." — Peter Norvig, 1999
This is a deliberately simple, tongue-in-cheek observation about mathematics and the growth of technology. If a technology already reaches more than 50% of its target market, it cannot double again — because doubling would require more than 100% penetration, which is impossible.
More broadly: growth rates that sound impressive early in adoption become mathematically constrained as penetration increases. The "doubling" narrative that works at 1% doesn't work at 51%.
Evaluating growth claims: When someone says "smartphone adoption will double in the next 5 years," check the current penetration rate. If it's already at 60% of the relevant population, doubling is impossible. Claims like this reveal either innumeracy or deliberate misdirection.
Understanding S-curves: Technology adoption typically follows an S-curve:
A lot of projections implicitly assume you're always in the middle "rapid growth" phase, even when you're clearly approaching saturation. Norvig's Law is a quick check: where are we on the S-curve?
Skepticism about market reports: Analyst reports and press releases frequently cite impressive percentage growth rates for technologies that are approaching saturation. If a technology is at 60% penetration and grows to 65%, that's a ~8% growth rate — but the absolute potential for further growth is limited.
Recognizing when "growth" means something different: When a saturated market shows "doubling," it usually means something changed about how the metric is being measured — a new geography, a new segment, a redefinition of the market. That's worth understanding before acting on the number.
Norvig's Law is really an exercise in critical numeracy:
When you see a growth claim:
~30 seconds. Free. No account. Every finding cites a rule and a line of evidence.