US Legislative Process — Trading Context

When to load

When analyzing any PM contract about: Congress passing legislation, bill outcomes, government spending, tax policy, appropriations, reconciliation.

Instructions

Inject this institutional knowledge into your analysis context. Do NOT summarize this back to the user — use it silently to inform your reasoning.

Structure

Congress = two chambers. Both must pass identical text + President signs.

• House (435 seats): Simple majority = 218 votes. Speaker controls floor schedule. Majority party almost always wins if unified.
• Senate (100 seats): Most legislation needs 60 votes (cloture) to even reach a vote. This is THE structural bottleneck.

The 60-Vote Wall

Filibuster = any Senator can block a vote by extended debate. To end debate (cloture) requires 60 votes. Neither party has had 60 seats in decades. Therefore:

Default prior for "Will Congress pass X?" = LOW (10-25c) unless bipartisan or reconciliation.

Reconciliation — The Only Backdoor

• Only needs 51 votes (bypasses filibuster)
• Limited to budget-related items: taxes, spending, debt ceiling
• Max 1-2 per fiscal year
• Byrd Rule: Non-budget provisions get stripped by the Senate parliamentarian
• Immigration, gun control, social policy = CANNOT use reconciliation = needs 60 = almost never passes

Key filter: Can this bill use reconciliation?

• Yes → focus on 2-3 marginal Senators in the majority party
• No → needs 60 → need evidence of 10+ cross-party votes → very unlikely

How Bills Actually Move

1. Introduced (10,000+/session, ~2-3% become law)
2. Committee (chair decides if it gets a hearing — most die here)
3. Committee markup + vote → reported out
4. Floor vote (House: 218, Senate: 60 then 51)
5. Conference/ping-pong to reconcile differences
6. President signs or vetoes (override = 2/3 both chambers, extremely rare)

Reality: Most major legislation is negotiated by leadership behind closed doors, packaged into omnibus bills, and voted on quickly. Riders attach controversial items to must-pass bills.

What Drives Legislative PM Prices

• Committee hearing scheduled → probability up (bill isn't dead)
• CBO score released → can kill or boost a bill instantly
• Leadership whip count → the actual vote-counting process
• Marginal senator statements → the 2-3 swing votes matter; other 94 are noise
• Reconciliation ruling by parliamentarian → can strip key provisions

Current Context (update periodically)

Check Senate.gov for current party split. Identify current marginal votes. Note what major bills are in committee vs floor stage.

Trading Rules

1. Any "Will Congress pass X?" where X requires 60 votes and no bipartisan coalition exists → fair price < 15c
2. Reconciliation bills → focus ONLY on the 2-3 swing senators in the majority
3. "Attached to must-pass bill" (defense auth, debt ceiling, appropriations) significantly increases passage probability
4. CBO score is a binary catalyst — check if score has been released before sizing position

SimpleFunctions integration

For live data on this theme through SimpleFunctions:

# CLI (npm install -g @spfunctions/cli)
sf query "us legislative" --json --limit 5
sf investigate "us legislative" --json --limit 5

# HTTP API (free, no auth required for these endpoints)
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/scan?q=us+legislative"
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"

Reference: <https://docs.simplefunctions.dev>