name: ctx-us-judicial
description: Context package — Supreme Court calendar, cert process, federal court system, judicial nominations. Use this skill when an agent is analyzing or trading prediction-market contracts in this theme.
license: CC-BY-4.0
metadata:
author: simplefunctions
version: "1.0.0"
US Judicial System — Trading Context
When to load
When analyzing PM contracts about: Supreme Court rulings, judicial nominations, court decisions, constitutional challenges.
Instructions
Inject silently. Use to inform analysis, do not recite.
Federal Court Structure
Three tiers:
- District Courts (94) — trial court, one judge, first to rule
- Circuit Courts (13 circuits) — three-judge appellate panels
- Supreme Court (9 justices) — final word, discretionary jurisdiction
Supreme Court Calendar
- October: Term begins. Oral arguments start.
- October-April: Oral arguments on cases granted cert
- Late June: Bulk of major opinions released (decision dump)
- Monday order lists: Cert grants/denials announced weekly during term
PM pattern: June is the highest-impact month for SCOTUS-related contracts. Prices consolidate through winter/spring, then resolve rapidly in June.
Certiorari (Cert) Process
- ~7,000 petitions/year, ~70 granted (1%)
- Rule of Four: only 4 justices needed to grant cert
- Cert grant = case WILL be decided, usually within same term
- Cert denied = lower court ruling stands (NOT an endorsement of it)
PM signal: A cert grant is a binary catalyst. If a case gets cert, the contract becomes "will SCOTUS rule X?" with a 6-8 month horizon.
Current Court Composition (6-3 Conservative)
Conservative bloc: Roberts (CJ), Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Barrett Liberal bloc: Sotomayor, Kagan, Jackson
But 6-3 is not automatic:
- Roberts frequently sides with liberals on institutional/procedural issues
- Gorsuch is libertarian, can break with conservatives on criminal justice, Native rights, textualism
- Kavanaugh is the current median justice (most frequent swing vote)
- Barrett has surprised on standing/procedure
For PM: don't assume 6-3 on every case. Check the specific legal question and which justices' jurisprudence it touches.
Shadow Docket
Emergency orders without full briefing or oral argument. Increasingly used for:
- Emergency stays of lower court injunctions
- Applications for injunctive relief
- Often 5-4 or 6-3 with brief or no written opinion
PM relevance: Shadow docket rulings can happen in days, not months. When a major executive action is enjoined by a district court, watch for emergency application to SCOTUS. This can flip a PM contract overnight.
Judicial Nominations
- President nominates, Senate confirms (simple majority, 51 votes)
- Supreme Court vacancies are massive PM events
- Lower court nominations are steady pipeline (affect venue shopping dynamics)
- Current ages matter: Thomas (78), Alito (76) — potential retirement triggers
Key Legal Doctrines for PM
- Standing: You must be personally injured to sue. Many challenges fail on standing before reaching the merits.
- Mootness: If the issue resolves itself, case is dismissed. Executive actions that expire can moot a case.
- Chevron deference (overturned 2024): Courts no longer defer to agency interpretations of ambiguous statutes → more executive actions vulnerable to challenge.
- Major Questions Doctrine: Agencies can't take actions of vast significance without clear Congressional authorization.
Trading Rules
- SCOTUS-related contracts: check the term calendar. If oral argument hasn't happened, decision is months away.
- June = decision season. Prices should compress toward 50c in May as uncertainty peaks, then resolve quickly.
- Shadow docket can produce overnight price shocks — monitor emergency applications.
- Justice age/health = retirement speculation. Thomas and Alito retirements are perennial PM bait.
- If a lower court blocks an executive action, check whether the government files an emergency SCOTUS application (usually within 1-2 weeks if they're serious about it).
- Cert denial ≠ "the court agrees with the lower court." It just means they don't want to hear it now.
SimpleFunctions integration
For live data on this theme through SimpleFunctions:
# CLI (npm install -g @spfunctions/cli)
sf query "us judicial" --json --limit 5
sf investigate "us judicial" --json --limit 5
# HTTP API (free, no auth required for these endpoints)
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/scan?q=us+judicial"
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"
Reference: <https://docs.simplefunctions.dev>