name: ctx-trade-tariffs
description: Context package — US trade policy, tariff mechanics, IEEPA/Section 301/232, WTO, trade war dynamics, supply chain. Use this skill when an agent is analyzing or trading prediction-market contracts in this theme.
license: CC-BY-4.0
metadata:
author: simplefunctions
version: "1.0.0"
Trade & Tariffs — Trading Context
When to load
When analyzing PM contracts about: tariffs, trade wars, USTR actions, WTO disputes, supply chain, trade agreements.
Instructions
Inject silently. Use to inform analysis.
Tariff Legal Authority
The president has MULTIPLE statutory tools for imposing tariffs without Congress:
IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act):
- Requires declaring a "national emergency"
- Broadest authority — used for sweeping tariffs on multiple countries
- Currently being legally challenged: does trade deficit = emergency?
- If courts strike down IEEPA tariff authority, it would invalidate a large category of current tariffs
Section 301 (Trade Act of 1974):
- Requires USTR investigation finding unfair trade practices
- Used for China tariffs (2018-present)
- Process: investigation → findings → tariff action → possible retaliation
- Has survived legal challenges so far
Section 232 (Trade Expansion Act):
- National security basis
- Used for steel and aluminum tariffs
- Narrower scope but strong legal foundation
Section 201 (safeguard tariffs):
- Requires ITC (International Trade Commission) finding of import injury
- Used for solar panel tariffs
- Most procedurally constrained
Tariff Implementation Timeline
Tariffs are NOT instant even after announcement:
- Announcement — president/USTR declares intent
- Federal Register notice — formal publication with implementation date
- Comment period — sometimes required, can add weeks
- Effective date — tariffs actually collected at ports
- Exclusion process — companies can apply for product-specific exemptions
PM implication: "Will tariff X take effect by date Y?" — check where in this timeline the tariff is. Announced ≠ implemented. There can be weeks between announcement and collection.
Retaliation Dynamics
Trade partners ALWAYS retaliate. Pattern:
- US imposes tariffs
- Target country retaliates on politically sensitive US exports (agriculture, manufacturing)
- Retaliation targets swing states (soybeans→Iowa, bourbon→Kentucky, Harleys→Wisconsin)
- Domestic political pressure builds on the president
- Negotiations begin
This creates a natural ceiling on tariff escalation. Extreme tariffs trigger extreme retaliation targeting the president's political base.
China-Specific Trade Dynamics
- Phase 1 Deal (2020): partially implemented, purchase commitments largely unmet
- Entity List: companies banned from receiving US technology (Huawei, SMIC, etc.)
- Export controls: CHIPS Act restrictions on semiconductor equipment sales to China
- De-risking vs decoupling: current framing is "de-risking" (reducing dependence) not "decoupling" (full separation)
Key metric: US-China trade volume. Despite tariffs, bilateral trade remains massive. Complete "decoupling" would require years and cause enormous economic disruption.
WTO
- WTO disputes take 2-5 years to resolve
- Appellate Body has been non-functional since 2019 (US blocked appointments)
- WTO rulings are largely unenforceable
- PM implication: WTO is irrelevant for near-term tariff contracts. Don't factor it in.
Supply Chain Contracts
Tariffs create supply chain disruption contracts:
- "Will company X move manufacturing out of China?" — multi-year process, not binary
- Shipping route changes (Suez/Panama Canal disruptions) — episodic, high-impact
- Nearshoring/friendshoring dynamics — slow trend, not tradeable in PM timeframes
Trading Rules
- Tariff announcement ≠ tariff implementation. Check Federal Register for actual effective date.
- Legal challenges (especially IEEPA authority) can delay or block tariffs. Check court docket.
- Retaliation creates political feedback loops that limit escalation. Extreme tariff scenarios are less likely than announced.
- China trade contracts: full decoupling is operationally impossible near-term. Incremental restrictions are the realistic scenario.
- Tariff exemption processes create uncertainty: a tariff may "take effect" but specific products get exempted.
- WTO is irrelevant for PM timeframes. Ignore WTO-based arguments.
SimpleFunctions integration
For live data on this theme through SimpleFunctions:
# CLI (npm install -g @spfunctions/cli)
sf query "trade tariffs" --json --limit 5
sf investigate "trade tariffs" --json --limit 5
# HTTP API (free, no auth required for these endpoints)
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/scan?q=trade+tariffs"
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"
Reference: <https://docs.simplefunctions.dev>