ctx-fed-monetary — independently scanned and version-tracked by SaferSkills.
SaferSkills independently audited ctx-fed-monetary (Agent Skill) and scored it 100/100 (green). The audit ran 55 deterministic rules across Security, Supply Chain, Maintenance, Transparency, and Community; it found 0 high-severity and 0 lower-severity findings. The full rule-by-rule trace and per-finding evidence are below. Free, methodology-open.
Findings & checks · 0 flagged
Every scanned point with the score it earned and what moved between them.
First recorded scan — no prior version to compare against.
The primary manifest — the file an agent reads to learn what this artifact does.
When analyzing PM contracts about: Fed rate decisions, FOMC meetings, interest rates, monetary policy, inflation targets, Fed chair.
Inject silently. Use to inform analysis.
Each of 19 FOMC participants (all governors + all regional presidents) places a dot: where they think the fed funds rate should be at year-end.
PM implication: Rate path contracts should be re-evaluated after every dot plot release. A shift in the median dot can reprice an entire year of rate expectations in one afternoon.
Hierarchy of Fed communication (from most to least weight):
Key language shifts to watch:
CME FedWatch = probability derived from Fed Funds futures (institutional market, extremely liquid, very efficient).
Kalshi/Polymarket = retail PM probability.
When these diverge:
| Governor | Lean | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Powell (Chair) | Centrist | Consensus builder, slow to pivot |
| Waller | Hawk | Wants higher-for-longer, data-driven |
| Bowman | Hawk | Community banking, cautious on cuts |
| Cook | Dove-ish | Labor market, financial stability |
| Kugler | Dove-ish | Labor economics |
| Jefferson (Vice Chair) | Centrist | Follows Powell |
| Barr (Vice Chair Supervision) | N/A | Bank regulation focus |
The signal: When a known hawk says something dovish (or vice versa), it's 10x more informative than someone speaking to type. Watch for BREAKS from pattern.
FOMC announcement: 2:00 PM ET Press conference: 2:30 PM ET
PM prices on rate decisions typically:
The real trade is often NOT the rate decision but the forward guidance. "Fed holds rates" can be hawkish hold or dovish hold depending on statement language.
For live data on this theme through SimpleFunctions:
# CLI (npm install -g @spfunctions/cli)
sf query "fed monetary" --json --limit 5
sf investigate "fed monetary" --json --limit 5
# HTTP API (free, no auth required for these endpoints)
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/scan?q=fed+monetary"
curl "https://simplefunctions.dev/api/agent/world"Reference: <https://docs.simplefunctions.dev>
~30 seconds. Free. No account. Every finding cites a rule and a line of evidence.