Polymarket Nothing-Ever-Happens Trader

Buy NO on standalone yes/no Polymarket markets priced below a configurable cap.

🚨 Framework, not a production trading system. Read DISCLAIMER.md before connecting to a wallet with real funds.

What's New in v1.1.3

• Club/league sports tokens (SIM-5518). Replay text now drops Celta/Bayern-class matchups and league-only titles (bundesliga, premier league, …). Political X vs Y stays eligible. Live is still tag/category.
• Replay already-holding stays at `max_bet`. get_positions() omits the venue filter under replay (replay 422s on venue, same class as weather SIM-5484). A held market_id is not re-bought on later ticks.
• `price_cap` docs match code. Default is 0.10. CONFIG_SCHEMA is the source of truth.

What's New in v1.1.2

• Standalone is tape-authoritative (CTO pass 2). The replay listing is requested at limit=1000 (the whole tape slice), so sibling counting covers every market on the tape, and rows with no event_id are dropped rather than admitted. The remaining FIX caveat is only that the tape itself may omit a sibling Polymarket had.

What's New in v1.1.1

• CTO review P1. Live ensure_can_trade with a missing or non-numeric max_safe_size now refuses to trade (no uncapped MAX_BET_USD). Replay listings expose event_id; the skill drops events that have more than one row on the page (standalone = live Gamma len(markets)==1).
• FIX caveat. If the tape omits event_id, or the listing page only shows one grouped leg, that row still enters. Tape volume stands in for both liquidity and 24h volume.

What's New in v1.1.0

• Replay plane (SIM-5443). Under simmer backtest (SIMMER_REPLAY=1) discovery, import, and the clock come from the existing replay harness — same SIMMER_REPLAY / SIMMER_REPLAY_NOW pattern as BTC up-down and weather. Live Gamma stays dark. Import accepts replay status=active. Sports still drop when tape tags are empty (question/slug tokens). Daily-spend uses the frozen tick, not wall clock.

This is a template. The default logic buys NO on any non-sports standalone market where NO costs ≤10¢. Remix it with custom filters (minimum volume thresholds, specific categories, date ranges) or pair it with a signal to skip markets where YES might actually happen. The skill handles plumbing (discovery, import, fee checks, execution). You define which markets to trade.

Based on: sterlingcrispin/nothing-ever-happens

The Thesis

On most standalone binary prediction markets, the event resolves NO — nothing dramatic happens. Markets systematically overprice dramatic YES outcomes. When NO is trading at 3¢–5¢, you're getting 20–33x payout if you're right, and the base rate of "nothing happens" is often much higher than the implied 3–5%.

⚠️ Automated stop-losses cannot protect against gap-resolution. Many NO-fade targets, weather temperature buckets especially, do not decay toward their losing outcome. They gap: the price sits near your entry, then jumps straight to about 0 at resolution. A percentage stop has no intermediate price to trigger on and no liquidity to exit into once it is near zero, so it cannot cap your downside on these markets. Size every position for the full loss, not for the stop. See DISCLAIMER.md.

What It Does

1. Scans Polymarket events via Gamma API for standalone yes/no markets
2. Filters out sports, grouped events, low-liquidity markets
3. Selects markets where NO ask ≤ price cap (default 10¢)
4. Imports each candidate into Simmer
5. Checks fees (only trades zero-fee markets) and safeguards
6. Buys NO via Simmer SDK, sized by max_bet_usd

Setup Flow

When user asks to install or configure this skill:

1. Install the Simmer SDK

   pip install simmer-sdk

1. Ask for Simmer API key

• They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab
• Store in environment as SIMMER_API_KEY

1. Ask for wallet private key (required for live trading)

• This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC)
• Store in environment as WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY
• The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed
• Not needed for $SIM paper trading on the Simmer venue

Quick Commands

# Scan for candidates (no trades)
python nothing_ever_happens.py --scan

# Dry run — show what would trade
python nothing_ever_happens.py

# Execute real trades
python nothing_ever_happens.py --live

# Quiet mode (for cron — only prints on trades/errors)
python nothing_ever_happens.py --live --quiet

# Show config
python nothing_ever_happens.py --config

# Update config
python nothing_ever_happens.py --set price_cap=0.03

Configuration

Update via CLI: python nothing_ever_happens.py --set price_cap=0.03

How It Works

Market Discovery

The skill fetches active Polymarket events via the Gamma API, sorted by 24h volume. Under simmer backtest (SIMMER_REPLAY=1) it lists from the Simmer tape instead — live Gamma would be look-ahead. It only considers standalone events — events with exactly one market. Grouped events (e.g. "Who wins Iowa?" alongside "Who wins Florida?" in a presidential election group) are excluded because:

• They're often higher-profile and more efficiently priced
• The original strategy targets isolated, under-the-radar markets

Filters Applied

1. Standalone — event has exactly 1 market
2. Binary yes/no — outcomes are exactly ["Yes", "No"]
3. Non-sports — category and tags must not be sports-related. Replay also drops club/league tokens in question/slug (Celta/Bayern class) because tape tags are empty.
4. Price cap — NO price ≤ configured cap (default 10¢)
5. Liquidity — event liquidity ≥ 500 USDC
6. Volume — event 24h volume ≥ 100 USDC

After Candidate Selection

For each candidate, the skill:

1. Imports the market into Simmer (needed to get a Simmer market ID for trading)
2. Skips markets where you already hold a position
3. Checks fees — only trades zero-fee markets (fee drag destroys edge on cheap NO)
4. Checks safeguards — skips markets with severe flip-flop warnings
5. Executes client.trade(side="no", amount=max_bet_usd)

Risk Profile

• You pay the ask price for NO shares (default ≤10¢ each)
• If YES resolves: you lose your bet. If NO resolves: you collect $1/share
• Expected value depends on how often YES actually resolves in these markets
• The thesis: base rate of NO is much higher than 10%, so a 10x payout at the default cap is favorable
• This is not guaranteed profit. The edge depends on market selection quality.

API Endpoints Used

• Gamma API /events — Discover active Polymarket events
• POST /api/sdk/import — Import market to Simmer (via client.import_market())
• GET /api/sdk/context/{market_id} — Fee rate and safeguards
• POST /api/sdk/trade — Trade execution
• GET /api/sdk/positions — Current positions (avoid doubling up)

Troubleshooting

Replay KEEP / KILL (SIM-5443)

Reuse simmer backtest / SIMMER_REPLAY=1. Do not invent a second harness. Pinned path check:

python -m pytest skills/polymarket-nothing-ever-happens/tests/test_replay_plane.py -q

"No candidates below price cap" → All standalone non-sports markets have NO > cap. Lower price_cap (e.g. --set price_cap=0.08) or wait — cheap NO opportunities appear sporadically.

"Daily budget exhausted" → Hit daily limit. Adjust with --set daily_budget=30.

"Import failed" → The market may have already resolved, or the slug is incorrect. The skill skips and continues.

All candidates have fees → The fee filter is intentional — on a 5¢ NO position (p=0.05) the crypto taker fee runs ~6.6% of cost, eliminating most of the edge on cheap NO. By design. Zero-fee categories (e.g. Geopolitics) bypass this filter.

"gamma_api.py not found" → Copy gamma_api.py from the polymarket-ai-divergence skill into this skill's directory, or install both skills together.