veynor-agent-demo

A Claude agent that answers probability questions grounded in live prediction market data from Veynor.

Ask it anything. It fetches real prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, then synthesizes a data-driven answer. No hallucinated probabilities.

How it works

Claude gets access to 6 Veynor tools:

• search_markets: search by keyword across both venues
• get_top_markets: top markets by 24h volume
• get_signals: wide spreads, price movers, cross-venue arb
• get_whales: recent large trades ($8k+)
• get_topic: deep dive by topic (crypto, geopolitics, macro, sports...)
• get_pulse: plain-English market briefing

It decides which tools to call, calls them, and synthesizes the answer. You see exactly which tools it used.

Example

$ python3 agent.py "What are the odds of a Fed rate cut before end of 2026?"

============================================================
Q: What are the odds of a Fed rate cut before end of 2026?
============================================================
  [tool] search_markets({"query":"Fed rate cut 2026"})

A: Here's the full picture on Fed rate cuts in 2026. Markets are very skeptical.

Bottom line: ~31% chance of at least 1 cut by year-end

This is derived by inverting the "0 cuts" market, priced at 69c YES on both
Polymarket and Kalshi. Markets see a 69% probability of zero cuts.

Cut Count Probabilities (Polymarket and Kalshi agree closely):
  0 cuts    69c (69%)
  1 cut     20c (20%)
  2 cuts     6c  (6%)
  3 cuts     3c  (3%)
  4+ cuts   ~2c

Meeting-by-meeting breakdown:
  June      1c  (essentially 0%)
  July      7c
  September 13c
  October   20c
  December  28c  <- last real window

Bonus signal: "Fed rate hike in 2026?" is priced at 50c on Polymarket. A
coin flip. The market is genuinely torn between cuts and hikes.

Setup

Get API keys:

• Veynor: veynor.xyz (free tier available)
• Anthropic: console.anthropic.com

Install and run:

git clone https://github.com/sfrbuilds/veynor-agent-demo
cd veynor-agent-demo

pip install -r requirements.txt

cp .env.example .env
# fill in your keys

# one-shot
VEYNOR_API_KEY=vey_sk_... ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-... \
  python3 agent.py "What's the market saying about a Trump impeachment?"

# interactive
VEYNOR_API_KEY=vey_sk_... ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-... python3 agent.py

Or export your keys once:

export VEYNOR_API_KEY=vey_sk_...
export ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...

python3 agent.py

More things to ask

What's happening in crypto prediction markets right now?
Where is smart money flowing this week?
Find me mispriced markets with wide spreads
What are the geopolitics trade ideas right now?
Compare Iran nuclear deal odds on Kalshi vs Polymarket
What's the implied probability of a US recession this year?

Extend it

The agent loop is ~50 lines in agent.py. Easy to adapt:

• Swap Claude for GPT-4 or any OpenAI-compatible model
• Add tools for placing orders via veynor[trade]
• Pipe output to Slack, Discord, or a cron job
• Add memory to track how probabilities change over time

Built on

• Veynor: prediction market intelligence API (pip install veynor)
• Anthropic: Claude Sonnet for synthesis