Cost Trend

The smoke gate is binary (winRate ≥ 0.80 → pass/fail). The corpus benchmarks captured over time form a curve — and curves catch regressions the gate misses (win rate slowly creeping from 100% to 85% is "still passing" by smoke but a real degradation).

This skill reads every persisted run in docs/benchmarks/runs/*.json and reports first→last deltas plus a per-run series, flagging regressions in win rate or latency.

When to use

• Before a release — check that the speedup hasn't drifted.
• After expanding the corpus — verify older runs still hit the same win rate on the new corpus they reflected.
• After upgrading agent-booster — surface latency / strategy changes.

Steps

1. Run the trend script from the project root:

   node plugins/ruflo-cost-tracker/scripts/trend.mjs

Optional env:

• TREND_FORMAT=json — emit JSON instead of markdown
• TREND_LIMIT=10 — consider only the most recent N runs

1. Inspect the drift summary — first vs last on win rate, avg latency, p99, escalation rate, speedup vs Gemini.

1. Inspect the per-run series — one row per run, including Sonnet 4.6 + Opus 4.7 baseline latencies if those were enabled (BENCH_ANTHROPIC=1 at run time).

1. Regression flags — the script emits > ⚠ Regression callouts when:

• Win rate dropped between first and last run
• Avg latency rose ≥ 1.5× from first run

Cross-references

• cost-benchmark — the producer of the run JSONs this skill consumes
• bench/booster-corpus.json — the corpus version is recorded in each run, so trends across corpus versions remain interpretable
• docs/benchmarks/runs/latest.json — the most-recent run; smoke step 23 gates on winRate ≥ 0.80 from this file