hypothesis-ranking-pipeline

Goal:

• Update ranking artifacts for one reviewed hypothesis using canonical placement-opponent selection, ranked-frontier selection, tournament judgments, and Elo updates.

Inputs:

• candidate hypotheses/<id>/HYPOTHESIS.json
• current viable hypothesis frontier
• optional state/PROXIMITY_GRAPH.json
• current tournament artifacts
• numeric ranking settings from state/RESOLVED_RUN_CONFIG.json

Outputs:

• updated tournaments/*.json
• updated candidate and opponent hypotheses/<id>/HYPOTHESIS.json artifacts with Elo and match references
• updated state/PIPELINE_STATE.json
• updated state/CURRENT_STAGE.json

Sub-skills:

• hypothesis-placement-tournament
• hypothesis-ranked-tournament
• ranking-elo-update

Context Loading:

• Open skills/shared-references/schema-index.md.
• Read packages/agent_contracts/hypothesis.py and confirm the exact HypothesisContract shape before writing any touched HYPOTHESIS.json artifact.
• Read packages/agent_contracts/ranking.py and confirm the exact TournamentMatchContract plus HypothesisMatchupContract shapes.
• Read packages/agent_contracts/resolved_config.py for placement_match_count and tournament_top_k.
• Read packages/agent_contracts/pipeline_runtime.py before updating state/PIPELINE_STATE.json or state/CURRENT_STAGE.json.
• If state/PROXIMITY_GRAPH.json exists, read packages/agent_contracts/state.py and load the exact ProximityGraphContract.
• Read packages/agent_contracts/proximity.py before interpreting state/proximity_receipts/<hypothesis_id>.json or state/PROXIMITY_STATUS.json.
• Treat a missing or candidate-incomplete proximity graph as a valid upstream state only when the candidate has a bridge receipt/status proving that the embedding provider was skipped, disabled, unavailable, invalid, or failed. Do not interpret graph absence as permission to fabricate similarity state.

Execution Contract:

• This pipeline skill may orchestrate LLM tournament judgments, but all frontier-selection mechanics must use the canonical deterministic helper surface from tools.
• Use from tools import sync_pipeline_stage_artifacts as the canonical paired write surface for entering the Ranking substage.
• On entry, call tools.sync_pipeline_stage_artifacts(run_dir, current_phase="Ranking", current_skill="hypothesis-ranking-pipeline").
• Use from tools import select_placement_opponents as the canonical placement-opponent selector when state/PROXIMITY_GRAPH.json is available.
• Use from tools import select_fallback_placement_opponents only for receipt-gated placement fallback when usable proximity state is unavailable.
• Use from tools import get_top_k_hypotheses to derive the canonical current top-k frontier.
• Use from tools import should_run_ranked_tournament to decide whether the candidate must enter ranked play.
• Use from tools import select_ranked_opponents to derive the canonical ranked-tournament opponents when ranked play is warranted.
• The helper implementations live in packages/agent_mechanics/top_k_select.py.
• Use ranking-elo-update after tournament winners are already decided. It is the canonical Elo and match-reference update step.
• Apply the placement batch Elo update before ranked-top-k gating; ranked tournament eligibility must be computed from the post-placement frontier, not stale pre-placement ratings.
• ranking-elo-update must close the batch by calling tools.apply_and_persist_elo_updates(...) before convergence or downstream routing reads the frontier again.
• The ranking closeout helper updates touched canonical hypothesis artifacts without rewriting standalone REVIEW/*.json stage artifacts and writes a RankingUpdateReceiptContract.
• Match refs are not sufficient closeout proof; each completed placement or ranked batch must have a persisted ranking update receipt.
• Ranking closeout must use the receipt-writing helper exactly once per completed batch. If the same stable receipt already exists, treat the helper's returned persisted receipt as the closeout proof and do not reapply Elo deltas or append duplicate match refs.
• Do not replace the helper logic with ad hoc manual opponent choice when the canonical artifacts needed by the helpers are available.
• If state/PROXIMITY_GRAPH.json is missing, invalid, or does not contain usable state for the candidate, first check state/proximity_receipts/<candidate_id>.json and state/PROXIMITY_STATUS.json.
• Receipt-gated placement fallback is allowed only when those bridge artifacts explicitly record a skipped, disabled, failed, or provider-unavailable proximity outcome for the candidate. If no such receipt/status exists, return to hypothesis-proximity-update instead of choosing opponents manually.
• When receipt-gated placement fallback is used, call tools.select_fallback_placement_opponents(candidate, hypotheses, placement_match_count) and write an explicit trace/rationale that names the candidate receipt status and states that placement was not embedding-, proximity-, or similarity-informed.

Execution Steps:

1. Open skills/shared-references/schema-index.md, then read the exact ranking, hypothesis, resolved-config, optional proximity, and pipeline-runtime contracts before writing artifacts.
2. Before selecting opponents or running tournaments, call tools.sync_pipeline_stage_artifacts(run_dir, current_phase="Ranking", current_skill="hypothesis-ranking-pipeline").
3. Load the candidate hypothesis, the current viable frontier, and state/RESOLVED_RUN_CONFIG.json.
4. If state/PROXIMITY_GRAPH.json is available and contains usable proximity state for the candidate, call tools.select_placement_opponents(graph, candidate, hypotheses, placement_match_count) to derive the placement opponents.
5. If state/PROXIMITY_GRAPH.json is unavailable, invalid, or candidate-incomplete, inspect the candidate proximity receipt/status. If the bridge artifacts record a skipped, disabled, failed, or provider-unavailable outcome, record an explicit receipt-gated fallback rationale in the trace, name the fallback status, state that placement was not embedding-, proximity-, or similarity-informed, and call tools.select_fallback_placement_opponents(candidate, hypotheses, placement_match_count). If no such bridge artifact exists, stop ranking and return to hypothesis-proximity-update. Do not treat fallback selection as equivalent to tools.select_placement_opponents(...) when the graph exists.
6. Run hypothesis-placement-tournament for each placement matchup and persist the resulting TournamentMatchContract artifacts.
7. Run ranking-elo-update exactly once for the placement batch immediately after placement winners are decided, and confirm it writes every touched hypotheses/<id>/HYPOTHESIS.json artifact plus a ranking update receipt before ranked gating. Match ref arrays must remain duplicate-free.
8. Reload the candidate and viable frontier from the persisted hypothesis artifacts.
9. Call tools.get_top_k_hypotheses(hypotheses, tournament_top_k) to derive the post-placement frontier and tools.should_run_ranked_tournament(candidate, top_k_hypotheses, tournament_top_k) to decide whether ranked play is required.
10. If ranked play is required, call tools.select_ranked_opponents(candidate, hypotheses, tournament_top_k) and run hypothesis-ranked-tournament for each resulting matchup. If ranked play is required but no ranked opponents exist because the frontier has no other viable hypotheses, record that as a traceable no-op.
11. If ranked tournament matches were created, run ranking-elo-update exactly once for the ranked batch and confirm it writes every touched hypotheses/<id>/HYPOTHESIS.json artifact plus a ranking update receipt again. Do not copy opponent-side ranked refs into the current child's evolution-round receipt unless the child was hypothesis_1_id for that ranked match.
12. Persist the touched tournament artifacts and touched hypotheses/<id>/HYPOTHESIS.json artifacts.
13. Validate the updated ranking artifacts before declaring completion.

Artifact Rules:

• packages/agent_mechanics/top_k_select.py is the canonical frontier-selection implementation; the pipeline skill must not fork its semantics in prompt prose.
• Placement-opponent choice, ranked-entry gating, and ranked-opponent choice are deterministic mechanics, not freeform policy decisions.
• When canonical similarity state exists, placement opponents must come from tools.select_placement_opponents(...).
• When canonical similarity state is unavailable and a receipt-gated fallback is used, placement opponents must come from tools.select_fallback_placement_opponents(...), and ranking artifacts and traces must describe the fallback as receipt-gated deterministic placement, not as proximity-informed ranking.
• Ranked-tournament entry must come from tools.should_run_ranked_tournament(...), not from an ad hoc narrative threshold.
• Ranked opponents must come from tools.select_ranked_opponents(...), not from a manually re-sorted custom frontier.

Completion Rule:

• This skill is complete only when the canonical selection helpers have been applied where their required artifacts exist, all resulting tournament winners have been serialized, ranking-elo-update has persisted the touched hypothesis artifacts and ranking update receipt, and the run validates for downstream evolution or overview work.