Merger Analysis (third-party perspective)

OloLand's third_party_merger perspective treats both the target and the acquirer as first-class entities. The user is an outside observer — never a principal — and every output frames evidence from both sides.

Triggering phrases

Invoke /dd-merger-analyze "<their phrasing>" whenever the user says any of:

• "examine the acquisition of X by Y"
• "analyze the X-Y merger"
• "is the [deal] accretive?"
• "what's the premium on [deal]?"
• "what's the HHI on [deal]?"
• "could [deal] survive antitrust review?"

If the phrasing is ambiguous about which company is the target vs. acquirer, ask back; do not guess.

What the deal looks like

/dd-merger-analyze creates a deal stamped perspective=third_party_merger and dispatches three ingestion lanes in parallel:

• Lane A — target-side ingestion (10-K, 10-Q, target market intel)
• Lane B — acquirer-side ingestion (same)
• Lane C — combined-entity artifacts (announcement 8-K, S-4 proxy if filed, antitrust filings)

Each side then carries a per-side data-readiness tier: high, medium, low, or missing. The four deterministic engines (premium, accretion/dilution, antitrust HHI, combined DCF) refuse to run when required inputs are missing — they never impute.

Cockpit hero tiles

After ingestion, direct the user to the cockpit (view_url). It exposes five hero tiles plus per-side risk and financial tiles:

1. Deal terms — offer mix (cash / stock / mixed), enterprise value, exchange ratio.
2. Premium analysis — premium vs unaffected price, 52wk high, 30d VWAP, percentile within sector precedents.
3. Accretion / dilution — Year 1/2/3 EPS impact + breakeven synergy threshold.
4. Antitrust HHI — pre/post HHI per market definition, DOJ presumptive-challenge flag.
5. Combined-entity DCF — pro-forma valuation with synergy delta block.

Engine usage discipline

• Engines before prose. Quote engine outputs; do not state premium / EPS impact / HHI from your own reasoning.
• Cite per side. Every numeric claim ends in a citation. Use [T:N], [A:N], [C:N] prefixes per the merger-mechanics skill (target / acquirer / combined-entity document).
• Surface insufficiency. When a run_* engine returns INSUFFICIENT_DATA, tell the user which fields are missing and where they would typically come from (e.g., "target unaffected price is unavailable — typically pulled from the 8-K Item 1.01 filing window").
• Two-sided risk. Scope every taxonomy-classified risk to a side; never lump "merger risk" without saying whose.
• Don't pick a side. Frame "should X have done this deal?" answers as "evidence for/against from each side's perspective." You are not advocating for either principal.

Companion commands

• /dd-merger-readiness <deal_id> — per-side readiness tier + missing-data summary.
• /dd-merger-rerun-math <deal_id> [--engine ...] [--overrides ...] — re-run one or all four engines with input overrides (sensitivity analysis, e.g. halved synergies).

Subscription

The four engine tools and /dd-merger-analyze run on Plugin Free as part of the full-capability single-deal trial, metered against the monthly credit budget; /dd-merger-readiness is a zero-credit read. None are Pro-gated anymore — only the saleable Forensic Screen PDF (generate_forensic_screen_pdf) is paid. If a call ever returns tier_gated: true, surface the upgrade CTA at https://app.ololand.ai/settings/billing in your reply.