market-capture-analysis — independently scanned and version-tracked by SaferSkills.
SaferSkills independently audited market-capture-analysis (Agent Skill) and scored it 100/100 (green). The audit ran 55 deterministic rules across Security, Supply Chain, Maintenance, Transparency, and Community; it found 0 high-severity and 0 lower-severity findings. The full rule-by-rule trace and per-finding evidence are below. Free, methodology-open.
Findings & checks · 0 flagged
Every scanned point with the score it earned and what moved between them.
First recorded scan — no prior version to compare against.
The primary manifest — the file an agent reads to learn what this artifact does.
There are really only two questions a venture investor is asking:
This skill codifies the analytical structure for question 1. It is deliberately a static, if-then picture — it does not yet involve time. It is the size of the prize at each penetration step, with every assumption named so the reader can react to it. The companion timeline-scenario skill is what stress-tests the path to any cell in the grid. Doing this skill without its sibling produces a destination with no route; see Why this skill alone is incomplete below.
Terminology note: this document uses the standard SAM / SOM / TAM triad (Serviceable Addressable Market / Serviceable Obtainable Market / Total Addressable Market). The author's original termTOMis parked here as a seam: ifTOMmeans a distinct fourth concept (e.g., Total Obtainable Market — wider than SOM, narrower than SAM), it can be reintroduced as a fourth tier in a later version. Until then, the three-tier standard is used.
Given the company's existing pricing (or stated pricing assumptions) and existing business model, what is their top-line revenue and EBITDA at increasing levels of market penetration?
| Input | Source |
|---|---|
| Pricing | Stated price card, contract data, or explicit assumption flagged as such |
| Business model | Subscription / transaction / take-rate / per-seat / etc. — must be named, not implied |
| Unit of sale | Whatever the company actually sells (seats, contracts, transactions, GMV, gallons) — not a generic "customer" |
| EBITDA margin assumption | At-scale or stage-appropriate; cite the comparable if it isn't the company's own |
| SAM | Serviceable Addressable Market — the portion of TAM reachable with the current product and business model |
| SOM | Serviceable Obtainable Market — the portion of SAM realistically capturable given competition, distribution, and execution constraints |
| TAM | Total Addressable Market — total demand if 100% share |
Walk revenue and EBITDA across each penetration step, for each of SAM / SOM / TAM:
The grid produces 24 cells per market definition × 2 outputs (revenue, EBITDA) = up to 144 values. The analyst's job is to surface the handful of cells that actually matter for the deal narrative, not to dump all 144 in the memo.
Following the same exhaustive-vs-synthesized discipline as [[competitive-analysis]]:
| Artifact | This skill lands as |
|---|---|
| Dedicated research file (exhaustive) | Full SAM/SOM/TAM × 8-step penetration × revenue + EBITDA grid, with every assumption cited |
| Memo section (synthesized) | One table, 3–5 chosen cells, base case named, anchored on the most defensible market definition (usually SAM) with TAM as a ceiling reference |
The memo synthesis must also state:
Market capture alone produces a static set of cells with no path to any of them. The capture grid is the destination; the timeline scenarios in [[timeline-scenario-analysis]] are what test whether each destination is reachable and at what rate of growth. A memo that ships a capture grid but no timeline scenarios reads as a fantasy: "if the company captured 10% of SAM they'd be a $500M revenue business" is true and useless without an honest accounting of what it would take.
Run both skills. They are split to keep each focused, not because they are independent.
This section is a strong candidate for a grill_me: block. The judgment calls the model should not silently make:
Each has multiple defensible answers and depends on firm/partner/deal preference rather than corpus content.
apps/memopop-orchestrator/src/agents/ (no dedicated market-capture agent exists yet at time of writing).templates/outlines/.apps/memopop-orchestrator/templates/outlines/ — outline YAMLs that define the market section's guiding questions.~30 seconds. Free. No account. Every finding cites a rule and a line of evidence.