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Create multiple revenue scenarios with variable assumptions to support strategic planning, board presentations, and risk management.
Based on McKinsey Scenario Planning and FP&A best practices, combining:
| Claude Does | You Decide |
|---|---|
| Structures scenario framework | Assumption values |
| Calculates scenario outcomes | Which scenario to plan for |
| Identifies key sensitivities | Risk tolerance levels |
| Models variable impacts | Strategic responses |
| Presents range of outcomes | Final forecast commitment |
Model revenue scenarios for [Period]:
Current Status:
- YTD Revenue: $X
- Current Pipeline: $X
- Run Rate: $X/month
Key Variables to Model:
- Win rate: [Current: X%, Range: X-X%]
- Average deal size: [Current: $X, Range: $X-$X]
- Sales cycle: [Current: X days, Range: X-X]
- New pipeline creation: [Current: $X/month]
- Churn rate: [Current: X%]
Create best, likely, and worst case scenarios.| Scenario | Definition | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Best Case (Bull) | Everything goes right | 15-20% |
| Likely Case (Base) | Realistic expectations | 50-60% |
| Worst Case (Bear) | Major headwinds | 20-25% |
Rank variables by revenue impact:
| Driver | Impact | Controllability |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | High | Medium |
| Pipeline volume | High | High |
| Deal size | Medium | Low |
| Sales cycle | Medium | Medium |
| Churn rate | Medium | Medium |
| Pricing | Low | High |
For each driver, define realistic bounds:
Win Rate:
- Best: 35% (team is hitting stride)
- Likely: 25% (current performance)
- Worst: 18% (market headwinds)
Pipeline:
- Best: $5M (strong marketing)
- Likely: $4M (normal cadence)
- Worst: $2.5M (budget cuts)Revenue Formula (simplified):
Quarterly Revenue =
(Pipeline × Win Rate) +
(Expansion Revenue) -
(Churn)Apply to each scenario:
Best Case:
$5M × 35% = $1.75M new + $200K expansion - $50K churn
= $1.9M
Likely Case:
$4M × 25% = $1M new + $150K expansion - $80K churn
= $1.07M
Worst Case:
$2.5M × 18% = $450K new + $100K expansion - $120K churn
= $430KTest: "What if X changes by 10%?"
| Variable | +10% Impact | -10% Impact | Sensitivity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win Rate | +$100K | -$100K | High |
| Pipeline | +$90K | -$90K | High |
| Deal Size | +$50K | -$50K | Medium |
| Churn | -$30K | +$30K | Medium |
Expected Revenue =
(Best × Probability) +
(Likely × Probability) +
(Worst × Probability)
= ($1.9M × 20%) + ($1.07M × 55%) + ($430K × 25%)
= $380K + $589K + $108K
= $1.077MInput:
Model Q2 scenarios:
Current Status:
- Q1 Revenue: $850K
- Q2 Pipeline: $4.2M
- Monthly run rate: $280K
Variables:
- Win rate: Current 24%, Range 18-32%
- Avg deal: Current $45K, Range $38K-$55K
- New monthly pipeline: Current $800K, Range $500K-$1.2M
- Monthly churn: Current $25K, Range $15K-$40K
- Expansion: Current $50K/month, Range $30K-$80KOutput:
## Q2 Revenue Scenario Model
### Scenario Definitions
| Scenario | Probability | Description |
|----------|-------------|-------------|
| 🐂 Bull | 20% | Strong execution, market tailwinds |
| 📊 Base | 55% | Continue current trajectory |
| 🐻 Bear | 25% | Market slowdown, execution challenges |
### Variable Assumptions
| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull |
|----------|------|------|------|
| Starting Pipeline | $4.2M | $4.2M | $4.2M |
| Win Rate | 18% | 24% | 32% |
| Avg Deal Size | $38K | $45K | $55K |
| New Pipeline/mo | $500K | $800K | $1.2M |
| Monthly Churn | $40K | $25K | $15K |
| Expansion/mo | $30K | $50K | $80K |
### Q2 Revenue Calculations
#### 🐂 Bull Case: $1.42M
Starting Pipeline Revenue: $4.2M × 32% = $1.34M
Adjustment for deal size: $1.34M × ($55K/$45K) = $1.64M effective
New Pipeline Added (Q2): $1.2M × 3 months × 32% × 50% (partial close) = $576K
Expansion: $80K × 3 = $240K
Churn: -$15K × 3 = -$45K
Total Bull: $1.64M (existing) + $576K (new) + $240K (exp) - $45K (churn) Weighted at Q2 stage: $1.42M
#### 📊 Base Case: $980K
Starting Pipeline Revenue: $4.2M × 24% = $1.01M
New Pipeline (partial close): $800K × 3 × 24% × 50% = $288K
Expansion: $150K Churn: -$75K
Total Base: $1.01M × 0.9 (timing) + $150K - $75K = $980K
#### 🐻 Bear Case: $580K
Starting Pipeline Revenue: $4.2M × 18% = $756K × 0.85 (pushed deals) = $643K
New Pipeline: $500K × 3 × 18% × 40% = $108K Expansion: $90K Churn: -$120K
Total Bear: $580K
### Scenario Summary
| Scenario | Revenue | vs Q1 | Growth |
|----------|---------|-------|--------|
| 🐂 Bull | $1.42M | +$570K | +67% |
| 📊 Base | $980K | +$130K | +15% |
| 🐻 Bear | $580K | -$270K | -32% |
### Expected Value
E(Revenue) = ($1.42M × 0.20) + ($980K × 0.55) + ($580K × 0.25) = $284K + $539K + $145K = $968K
**Recommended Forecast: $950K - $1.0M**
### Sensitivity Analysis
| If This Changes... | Revenue Impact |
|--------------------|----------------|
| Win rate +5% | +$210K |
| Win rate -5% | -$210K |
| Pipeline +$500K | +$120K |
| Deal size +$5K | +$80K |
| Churn +$10K/mo | -$30K |
**Highest Sensitivity**: Win rate (focus on deal execution)
### Scenario Action Plans
**If Trending Bull:**
- Accelerate hiring plan
- Increase marketing spend
- Prepare for capacity constraints
**If Trending Base:**
- Stay the course
- Focus on execution
- Build pipeline for Q3
**If Trending Bear:**
- Tighten expense controls
- Extend runway calculations
- Double down on existing customers
- Consider discounting to close dealsInput:
Model 2026 annual scenarios for board:
2025 Results:
- Revenue: $4.2M
- Customers: 85
- ARR Growth: 45%
- NRR: 110%
2026 Planning Variables:
- New customer target: 40-80 new customers
- ACV range: $40K-$60K
- NRR range: 105%-120%
- Churn range: 5%-12%Output:
## 2026 Annual Revenue Scenarios
### For Board Review
---
### Scenario Summary
| Metric | Bear | Base | Bull |
|--------|------|------|------|
| New Customers | 40 | 60 | 80 |
| New ACV | $40K | $50K | $60K |
| New ARR | $1.6M | $3.0M | $4.8M |
| NRR | 105% | 112% | 120% |
| Existing Base | $4.41M | $4.70M | $5.04M |
| **Total ARR** | **$6.0M** | **$7.7M** | **$9.8M** |
| **Growth** | **43%** | **83%** | **133%** |
### Detailed Calculations
#### 🐻 Bear Case: $6.0M ARR (+43%)
**Assumptions:**
- Conservative new sales (40 customers)
- Lower ACV ($40K avg)
- NRR dips (105%)
- Higher churn (10%)
Existing Customer Base: $4.2M × 105% NRR = $4.41M
New Customer Revenue: 40 customers × $40K = $1.6M
Total: $6.0M
**When This Happens:**
- Market downturn
- Sales execution issues
- Product-market fit challenges
- Key competitor gains ground
---
#### 📊 Base Case: $7.7M ARR (+83%)
**Assumptions:**
- Target new sales (60 customers)
- Target ACV ($50K)
- Maintain NRR (112%)
- Normal churn (7%)
Existing Customer Base: $4.2M × 112% NRR = $4.70M
New Customer Revenue: 60 customers × $50K = $3.0M
Total: $7.7M
**This Is Likely If:**
- Execute at current pace
- Market conditions stable
- Product roadmap delivers
- Team retention healthy
---
#### 🐂 Bull Case: $9.8M ARR (+133%)
**Assumptions:**
- Exceed targets (80 customers)
- Premium ACV ($60K)
- Strong NRR (120%)
- Low churn (5%)
Existing Customer Base: $4.2M × 120% NRR = $5.04M
New Customer Revenue: 80 customers × $60K = $4.8M
Total: $9.8M
**Required For This:**
- Strong product releases
- Successful enterprise push
- Favorable market timing
- Key hires perform
---
### Expected Value & Recommendation
E(ARR) = ($6.0M × 0.20) + ($7.7M × 0.55) + ($9.8M × 0.25) = $1.2M + $4.24M + $2.45M = $7.89M
### Board Recommendation
**Target: $7.5M ARR** (+79% growth)
| Metric | Target | Confidence |
|--------|--------|------------|
| New Customers | 55-60 | Medium-High |
| New ARR | $2.75M | Medium |
| NRR | 110%+ | High |
| Total ARR | $7.5M | Medium |
### Key Risks & Mitigations
| Risk | Impact | Mitigation |
|------|--------|------------|
| Sales hiring delays | -$1M | Recruit pipeline now |
| Enterprise deals push | -$800K | Parallel SMB motion |
| Key customer churn | -$500K | CSM investment |
| Competitor pricing | -$600K | Value selling training |
### Monthly Checkpoints
| Month | Bear | Base | Bull |
|-------|------|------|------|
| Q1 End | $4.8M | $5.2M | $5.8M |
| Q2 End | $5.3M | $6.2M | $7.4M |
| Q3 End | $5.6M | $7.0M | $8.6M |
| Q4 End | $6.0M | $7.7M | $9.8M |
Track monthly and adjust Q3 if trending to Bear.## [Year] Revenue Scenarios
### Scenarios
| Case | Revenue | Growth | Probability |
|------|---------|--------|-------------|
| Bull | | | 20% |
| Base | | | 55% |
| Bear | | | 25% |
### Key Assumptions
| Variable | Bear | Base | Bull |
|----------|------|------|------|
### Sensitivity Analysis
| Variable | Impact per 10% |
|----------|----------------|
### Risk Register
| Risk | Scenario Impact | Mitigation |
|------|-----------------|------------|pipeline-forecasting - Feed into scenario modelslead-scoring - Input for pipeline assumptionsaccount-health - NRR/churn inputs~30 seconds. Free. No account. Every finding cites a rule and a line of evidence.