churn-prediction — independently scanned and version-tracked by SaferSkills.
SaferSkills independently audited churn-prediction (Agent Skill) and scored it 100/100 (green). The audit ran 55 deterministic rules across Security, Supply Chain, Maintenance, Transparency, and Community; it found 0 high-severity and 0 lower-severity findings. The full rule-by-rule trace and per-finding evidence are below. Free, methodology-open.
Findings & checks · 0 flagged
Every scanned point with the score it earned and what moved between them.
First recorded scan — no prior version to compare against.
The primary manifest — the file an agent reads to learn what this artifact does.
Detect early warning signals of customer churn through systematic analysis of usage patterns, support interactions, and relationship health.
Based on Lincoln Murphy's Churn Analysis and ProfitWell Retention Research, analyzing:
| Claude Does | You Decide |
|---|---|
| Identifies risk signals | Save vs. let go decisions |
| Calculates risk scores | Resource allocation |
| Suggests interventions | Discount/concession offers |
| Prioritizes at-risk accounts | Executive escalation timing |
| Analyzes churn patterns | Retention strategy changes |
Assess churn risk for this customer:
Account: [Company Name]
Contract: $[ARR], Renewal: [Date]
Tenure: [Months]
Usage Signals:
- Login frequency: [trend]
- Feature adoption: [% and trend]
- Active users: [current vs licensed]
- Key feature usage: [specific metrics]
Support Signals:
- Recent tickets: [count and nature]
- CSAT trend: [improving/stable/declining]
- Escalations: [any open or recent]
- Sentiment: [last few interactions]
Relationship Signals:
- Champion status: [engaged/disengaged/left]
- Exec sponsor: [status]
- NPS response: [score and comments]
- QBR attendance: [pattern]
Financial Signals:
- Payment status: [current/late]
- Contract discussions: [any mentions of changes]
- Competitor mentions: [any signals]30-60 Day Warning Signs:
| Signal | Risk Level | Weight |
|---|---|---|
| Login drop >50% | High | 15 |
| Feature usage stopped | High | 15 |
| Support tickets spike | Medium | 10 |
| Champion left | Critical | 20 |
| Negative NPS | High | 12 |
| Payment late | Medium | 8 |
| No QBR attendance | Medium | 8 |
| Competitor mentioned | High | 12 |
Risk Score Formula:
Churn Risk = Sum of weighted signals / 100
Score Ranges:
- 0-20: Low Risk (normal attention)
- 21-40: Moderate Risk (proactive outreach)
- 41-60: High Risk (intervention required)
- 61-80: Critical Risk (executive escalation)
- 81-100: Imminent Churn (save or plan exit)| Category | Indicators | Typical Save Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Product Fit | Low adoption, wrong use case | 30% |
| Value Gap | Not seeing ROI, budget pressure | 45% |
| Service Issue | Support failures, unresolved bugs | 60% |
| Relationship | Champion left, no engagement | 35% |
| Competition | Actively evaluating others | 25% |
| Business Change | M&A, budget cuts, pivot | 15% |
By Root Cause:
| Cause | Primary Action | Secondary Action |
|---|---|---|
| Product Fit | Success planning | Right-size contract |
| Value Gap | ROI review | Executive sponsor call |
| Service Issue | Escalation + resolution | Service credits |
| Relationship | New champion dev | Executive mapping |
| Competition | Competitive defense | Pricing review |
| Business | Flexible terms | Pause option |
90-Day Save Framework:
Input:
Account: MediaTech Corp
Contract: $96K ARR, Renewal: April 15 (45 days)
Tenure: 18 months
Usage Signals:
- Logins: Down 65% last 30 days
- Feature adoption: 35% (was 60%)
- Active users: 8 of 25 licensed
- Core feature: Stopped using analytics module
Support Signals:
- Tickets: 8 this month (normally 2)
- CSAT: Dropped from 4.5 to 3.2
- Escalation: 1 open (data export issue)
- Sentiment: Last 3 interactions negative
Relationship Signals:
- Champion: VP Marketing left 6 weeks ago
- Exec sponsor: Never established
- NPS: 4 (was 8 six months ago)
- QBR: Cancelled last two
Financial Signals:
- Payment: Current
- Mentions: "Evaluating options" in last call
- Competitor: Saw CompetitorX demo on their calendarOutput:
## Churn Risk Assessment: MediaTech Corp
### 🔴 CRITICAL RISK - 78/100
**Churn Probability: 75-85%**
**Time to Action: Immediate**
---
### Risk Signal Analysis
| Signal | Finding | Points |
|--------|---------|--------|
| Usage drop 65% | Critical | 15/15 |
| Feature stopped | Analytics abandoned | 15/15 |
| Champion left | No replacement | 20/20 |
| NPS Detractor | Dropped 4 points | 12/12 |
| Competitor eval | Demo scheduled | 12/12 |
| No QBR | 2 cancelled | 8/8 |
| **Total** | | **78/100** |
### Root Cause Analysis
**Primary: Relationship Void** (Champion departure)
- VP Marketing left 6 weeks ago
- No executive sponsor ever established
- Organizational knowledge lost
- No one internally championing value
**Secondary: Value Gap** (Product not delivering)
- Usage collapse suggests not getting value
- Analytics module abandoned = key feature unused
- May have been champion-dependent usage
**Tertiary: Active Competition**
- CompetitorX demo on calendar
- "Evaluating options" language
- Classic exit signals
### Competitor Intelligence
**CompetitorX Positioning:**
- Likely pitching: Simpler interface, lower price
- Their weakness: Less robust analytics
- Our defense: Depth of features, integration
### 90-Day Save Plan
**WEEK 1: Emergency Triage**
| Day | Action | Owner |
|-----|--------|-------|
| 1 | Resolve data export escalation | Support |
| 1 | CSM call to understand situation | CSM |
| 2 | Identify new potential champion | CSM |
| 3 | VP CS call to express commitment | VP CS |
| 5 | Executive sponsor outreach (their CMO) | CRO |
**WEEK 2-4: Stabilize**
- [ ] Close escalation completely
- [ ] Meet new champion (find one!)
- [ ] Re-onboard inactive users
- [ ] Document value delivered to date
- [ ] Competitive battle card preparation
**WEEK 5-8: Rebuild Value**
- [ ] ROI review presentation
- [ ] Success planning session
- [ ] Showcase new features
- [ ] Get 3 quick wins documented
**WEEK 9-12: Secure Renewal**
- [ ] QBR with exec attendance
- [ ] Renewal discussion
- [ ] Multi-year incentive if appropriate
- [ ] Reference/case study request (confidence signal)
### Save Probability Assessment
| If We... | Save Probability |
|----------|------------------|
| Do nothing | 15% |
| Standard outreach | 25% |
| Execute full plan | 45% |
| Add discount/concession | 55% |
| Exec-to-exec + plan | 60% |
### Decision Point
**Recommended: Full save effort**
- $96K ARR worth 60-90 hours of CSM time
- Cost to acquire replacement: ~$30K
- Reputation risk if churns
**If No Traction by Day 30:**
- Prepare for graceful offboarding
- Offer reduced contract if budget issue
- Maintain relationship for potential returnInput:
Analyze churn patterns from these 10 churned accounts:
1. AlphaCo: Left after 8 months, champion left, low usage
2. BetaTech: Left after 14 months, pricing, competitor win
3. GammaCorp: Left after 6 months, wrong fit, never adopted
4. DeltaInc: Left after 24 months, budget cuts, loved product
5. EchoSys: Left after 10 months, support issues, 3 escalations
6. FoxtrotLLC: Left after 18 months, competitor, champion left
7. GolfCo: Left after 4 months, implementation failed
8. HotelGrp: Left after 12 months, didn't see ROI
9. IndiaInc: Left after 9 months, champion left, low NPS
10. JulietCorp: Left after 20 months, M&A, product deprecatedOutput:
## Churn Cohort Analysis: Q4 Losses
### Summary
- **Total Churned**: 10 accounts
- **Total ARR Lost**: [Calculate from data]
- **Average Tenure**: 12.5 months
---
### Root Cause Distribution
| Root Cause | Count | % | Avg Tenure |
|------------|-------|---|------------|
| Champion Left | 4 | 40% | 11.3 mo |
| Competitor | 3 | 30% | 17.3 mo |
| Product/Fit | 2 | 20% | 5.0 mo |
| Business Change | 2 | 20% | 22.0 mo |
| Service/Support | 1 | 10% | 10.0 mo |
| Value/ROI | 2 | 20% | 10.0 mo |
*Note: Some accounts had multiple causes*
### Key Insights
**1. Champion Dependency is Critical (40%)**
- 4 of 10 churns involved champion departure
- Average: Churned 3-4 months after champion left
- **Action**: Multi-threading program required
**2. Early Churn = Fit Problem**
- 3 accounts churned <6 months
- All had adoption/implementation issues
- **Action**: Improve qualification + onboarding
**3. Competitor Wins Correlate with Tenure**
- Competitor losses at 14, 18, 20 months
- Long enough to evaluate alternatives
- **Action**: Value reinforcement at 12-month mark
**4. Business Change is Uncontrollable**
- 2 churns from M&A/budget cuts
- Both were "happy" customers
- **Action**: Accept, maintain relationship
### Early Warning Signal Validation
| Signal | Present Before Churn | Lead Time |
|--------|---------------------|-----------|
| Champion left | 4/10 (40%) | 3-4 months |
| Usage drop >40% | 7/10 (70%) | 6-8 weeks |
| NPS drop | 6/10 (60%) | 2-3 months |
| Missed QBR | 5/10 (50%) | 3-4 months |
| Support spike | 3/10 (30%) | 4-6 weeks |
**Best Predictor**: Usage drop >40% (70% correlation)
### Preventability Assessment
| Account | Preventable? | What Would Have Helped |
|---------|--------------|------------------------|
| AlphaCo | Likely | Champion backup plan |
| BetaTech | Possibly | Competitive defense earlier |
| GammaCorp | Unlikely | Better qualification |
| DeltaInc | No | Business change |
| EchoSys | Likely | Faster escalation resolution |
| FoxtrotLLC | Possibly | Multi-thread + compete |
| GolfCo | Likely | Implementation oversight |
| HotelGrp | Likely | Proactive ROI review |
| IndiaInc | Likely | Champion backup |
| JulietCorp | No | M&A out of control |
**Preventability Rate**: 60% (6/10 could have been saved)
### Recommendations
**Process Changes:**
1. Implement champion backup contact rule (2+ contacts)
2. Add 12-month value review to CSM playbook
3. Create competitive defense triggers
4. Improve implementation success metrics
**Investment Areas:**
1. CSM capacity for proactive outreach
2. Competitive intelligence
3. Champion development program
**Metrics to Track:**
- Champion backup coverage %
- Time to first value
- Competitive mention alerts
- 12-month NPS trendaccount-health - Broader health scoringhealth-score-monitor - Continuous monitoringrenewal-management - Renewal process~30 seconds. Free. No account. Every finding cites a rule and a line of evidence.