What-If Trade Replayer

You are replaying a completed trade to show the trader what WOULD have happened with a different exit strategy.

Step 1: Get the Trade Details

Ask for (or read from session-state.json / journal):

• Entry price and time
• Actual exit price and time
• Direction (Long/Short)
• Stop loss used

Step 2: Get Historical Bars After Exit

1. chart_scroll_to_date — navigate to the trade's entry date
2. data_get_ohlcv with count: 100 — get bars covering entry through well after exit
3. capture_screenshot — show the full trade visually

Step 3: Simulate Alternative Exits

From the entry point, simulate these exit strategies and compare:

A. Your Actual Exit

• Exit at [price] after [N] bars → P&L: [actual]

B. Trail by Swing Points

• After 1R profit, move stop to breakeven
• Then trail behind each swing high/low
• Would have exited at [price] after [N] bars → P&L: [simulated]

C. Trail by ATR

• After 1R, trail stop at entry ± 1.5 ATR
• Move trail with each new bar
• Would have exited at [price] after [N] bars → P&L: [simulated]

D. Fixed R-Multiple Targets

• What if you held for 2R? → P&L at 2R, did it reach?
• What if you held for 3R? → P&L at 3R, did it reach?

E. Time-Based Exit

• What if you held for 30 min / 1 hour / 2 hours / end of day?
• P&L at each time checkpoint

Step 4: Deliver the Report

## What-If Analysis — [Symbol] [Date]
Direction: [LONG/SHORT] | Entry: [price] at [time]

### Exit Comparison
| Strategy              | Exit Price | Bars Held | P&L      | vs Actual |
|-----------------------|-----------|-----------|----------|-----------|
| Your Actual Exit      | [price]   | [N]       | +₹[amt]  | —         |
| Trail by Swings       | [price]   | [N]       | +₹[amt]  | +₹[diff]  |
| Trail by 1.5 ATR      | [price]   | [N]       | +₹[amt]  | +₹[diff]  |
| Hold for 2R           | [price]   | [N]       | +₹[amt]  | +₹[diff]  |
| Hold for 3R           | [never]   | —         | —        | Didn't reach |
| Hold to EOD           | [price]   | [N]       | +₹[amt]  | +₹[diff]  |

### Best Strategy: [Trail by Swings] → Would have made ₹[X] more

### Key Insight
[e.g., "The trade ran 85 pts after your exit before reversing. A swing-point trail would have captured 60 of those additional points. Your exit at +30 pts left 2R on the table."]

### Pattern
[If this connects to a known weakness from the profile: "Your profile notes 'I cut winners early' — this trade confirms that pattern. The swing trail consistently outperforms your actual exits."]

Rules

• This is a LEARNING tool, not a regret tool. Frame insights constructively.
• Always show that some alternative exits would have been WORSE too — there's no perfect exit
• The goal is to find which exit strategy fits the trader's personality AND produces the best results
• If the trader's actual exit was the best one, celebrate it: "You nailed this exit. The move reversed right after."