Market Regime Detector

You are classifying the current market regime to determine HOW to trade, not WHAT to trade. A trending strategy in a choppy market loses money, and vice versa.

Step 0: Load Profile

Read trader-profile.json for primary symbol and timeframes.

Step 1: Gather Multi-Timeframe Data

For the primary symbol:

1. Daily: chart_set_timeframe → "D", then data_get_ohlcv with count: 20
2. Trading TF: chart_set_timeframe → default TF, then data_get_ohlcv with count: 50
3. data_get_study_values — EMAs, VPA trend, volume
4. quote_get on NSE:INDIAVIX (if Indian market)

Step 2: Calculate Regime Indicators

From the OHLCV data, compute:

ADR (Average Daily Range)

• Last 5 days avg range vs last 20 days avg range
• ADR expanding = volatility increasing
• ADR contracting = volatility decreasing

Directional Consistency

• Count days up vs days down in last 10 bars
• 7+ in same direction = Strong Trend
• 5-6 in same direction = Weak Trend
• 4-6 mixed = Ranging/Choppy

Range Position

• Where is price within the 20-bar range? (0% = at low, 100% = at high)
• If consistently above 70% or below 30% = Trending
• If oscillating between 30-70% = Ranging

EMA Alignment

• EMA 50 vs EMA 200 from study values
• Both sloping same direction and well separated = Trending
• Flat or intertwined = Ranging/Choppy

VIX Level (Indian Markets)

• < 13: Low vol regime
• 13-18: Normal
• 18-25: Elevated
• > 25: High vol / crisis

Candle Character

• Many bars with long wicks, small bodies, overlapping = Choppy
• Large bodies, minimal wicks, sequential = Trending
• Alternating up/down with defined high/low = Ranging

Step 3: Classify Regime

TRENDING

• EMA 50 above/below EMA 200 with clear separation
• 7+ of last 10 bars in same direction
• Price making higher highs & higher lows (up) or lower highs & lower lows (down)
• How to trade: Follow the trend. Buy pullbacks to EMAs. Don't fade. Trail stops. Larger targets.

RANGING

• EMA 50 and EMA 200 flat or crossing
• Price bouncing between defined support and resistance
• ADR stable or contracting
• How to trade: Fade the extremes. Buy support, sell resistance. Take profits quickly. Tight targets.

VOLATILE

• ADR expanding (today's range > 1.5x 20-day average)
• VIX elevated (>20 for India)
• Large candle bodies with range expansion
• How to trade: Reduce size by 50%. Wider stops (1.5-2x normal). Only A+ setups. Fewer trades.

CHOPPY

• ADR contracting but directionless
• Many overlapping candles with long wicks
• EMA 50 and 200 intertwined
• No clear support/resistance holding
• How to trade: Stay out or scalp only. This is where most traders give back profits.

Step 4: Deliver Regime Report

## Market Regime — [Symbol] [Date]

### Current Regime: [TRENDING UP / TRENDING DOWN / RANGING / VOLATILE / CHOPPY]
Confidence: [HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW]

### Evidence
| Indicator           | Value              | Regime Signal    |
|---------------------|--------------------|------------------|
| EMA Alignment       | EMA50 > EMA200     | Trending         |
| Directional (10 bar)| 7 up / 3 down      | Trending         |
| ADR Ratio (5d/20d)  | 1.2x               | Normal→Expanding |
| Range Position      | 78%                | Near highs       |
| India VIX           | 19.5               | Elevated         |
| Candle Character    | Strong bodies       | Trending         |

### What This Means for You
- **Position sizing**: [Normal / Reduce 50% / Stay out]
- **Stop width**: [Normal / Widen 1.5x / Widen 2x]
- **Strategy**: [Trend-follow / Fade extremes / Scalp only / Don't trade]
- **Trade count**: [Normal / Reduce / Max 2-3 today]
- **Expected range today**: [X pts based on ADR]

### Regime History (Last 5 Sessions)
| Date   | Regime     | ADR  | Result for You |
|--------|-----------|------|----------------|
| Apr 3  | Trending  | 180  | Good day       |
| Apr 2  | Choppy    | 95   | Whipsawed      |
| Apr 1  | Volatile  | 320  | Big moves      |

### Warning Signs for Regime Change
- [What would signal the regime is changing]
- e.g., "If VIX drops below 18 and ADR contracts, regime shifts to Ranging"

Rules

• Regime should be checked at the start of every session — it's the first question a pro asks
• A regime can change intraday (rare but happens) — if morning is trending and lunch becomes choppy, update
• CHOPPY is the most dangerous regime — most traders lose money here because they keep trying
• When regime is unclear (LOW confidence), default to the most conservative interpretation
• Include regime in morning prep reports automatically