Vasana

A vasana is a pattern that persists across unrelated contexts. If during this task you notice such a pattern emerging, it may be worth capturing. This skill works best alongside the vasana skill and vasana hook from the Vasana System plugin.

Modify freely. Keep this section intact.

Macro Monitor - Geopolitical Financial Checklist

Purpose

Structured monitoring of macro/geopolitical financial indicators using free public data sources.

Quick Checklist

1. Foreign Treasury Holdings (Monthly)

Source: Treasury TIC Data (https://ticdata.treasury.gov/Publish/mfh.txt)

What to check:

• China holdings level (normal: $700B-$1.3T)
• Japan holdings level (normal: $1.0T-$1.3T)
• Month-over-month change
• Trend direction over 6 months

Red flags:

• Drop >$50B in single month
• China drops below $600B
• Coordinated selling (China + Japan both selling)
• A drop is consistent with selling and with relocation to a custodian this series cannot see — read "Before Reading a Trend" below before escalating.

2. Dollar Index vs 10Y Yield (Daily)

Sources:

• DXY: FRED series DTWEXBGS (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS)
• 10Y: FRED series DGS10 (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10)

Normal behavior: Higher yields → stronger dollar

Red flag patterns:

Critical divergence: Yields rising + Dollar falling = investigate immediately

3. Central Bank Gold (Monthly)

Source: World Gold Council or PBOC announcements

What to check:

• PBOC monthly gold purchases
• Cumulative central bank buying
• Gold price trend vs dollar

Red flags:

• PBOC buying >20 tonnes/month sustained
• Multiple central banks buying simultaneously
• Gold rising despite dollar strength

4. Yield Curve (Daily)

Source: FRED series T10Y2Y (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y)

What to check:

• 10Y-2Y spread
• Inversion status
• Duration of inversion

Warning levels:

Data Retrieval

Automated Scripts

FRED data: python3 scripts/fred_fetcher.py [series_id|snapshot|divergence|crisis]

• snapshot — all 7 macro series (Treasury, dollar, VIX, Fed funds, Brent, EUR, yield curve)
• divergence — yield-dollar divergence check with interpretation
• crisis — red flag alert check (Brent >$120, VIX >35, 10Y >5%, yield curve inverted, USD/EUR >1.20)
• [SERIES_ID] — latest value for any FRED series

TIC data: python3 scripts/tic_parser.py

Manual Quick Check

# Get latest 10Y yield
curl -s "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DGS10" | tail -5

# Get latest dollar index
curl -s "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id=DTWEXBGS" | tail -5

Interpretation Framework

Before Reading a Trend

• What can this instrument not see, and is the claim exactly that? A

network's own share counts only traffic on that network; a custodian's holdings count only what sits with that custodian. A fall in either is consistent with retreat and with migration — the instrument cannot separate the readings (observed twice: 2026-09-16, SWIFT's RMB share; 2026-09-25, NY Fed foreign-official custody, flat through a yield spike).

• Whose records could separate them, and in what language? Name the party

and the language in the report's limits even when unreached — the SWIFT case was partly resolved only by PBoC/SAFE settlement data, in Chinese.

• Did the series' definition move? Before reading a level shift as a trend,

check the method notes for threshold, perimeter, unit or base changes (iterative-verification, Definition-Drift Check).

Growth vs Value Sensitivity

Growth stocks (tech, high P/E):

• More sensitive to rate increases
• Future cash flows discounted at higher rates
• Sell on yield spikes

Value stocks (utilities, banks):

• Less rate-sensitive
• Banks may benefit from higher rates
• More defensive in rate environment

Sector Impact Matrix

When to Escalate

Immediate attention required if:

1. Dollar-yield divergence >3 days
2. China TIC drop >$50B in month
3. Multiple indicators red simultaneously
4. Pattern resembles April 2025 event

Reference Materials

See reference/ subdirectory for:

• Historical divergence patterns
• Detailed indicator documentation
• Source URLs and update schedules

Update frequency: Check TIC monthly (mid-month release), FRED daily for divergence monitoring.